Grants, Not Debt: The Test Awaiting Island States at COP31

COP31 runs from 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Türkiye, with a thematic day on oceans and the blue economy on 18 November. The Pacific has already set out its position. At the pre-COP31 meeting in Fiji in October, Pacific leaders voiced frustration at how hard it is to reach the global climate finance system, and restated that wealthy countries should provide grants rather than additional debt. Australia's climate minister told the same process that small island developing states receive only 0.2 per cent of global climate finance.

The economic backdrop sharpens the argument. The IMF's October regional outlook downgraded 2026 growth for some Pacific island countries, citing a food and fuel shock that has hit the islands disproportionately, alongside limited fiscal buffers. A World Bank report on Fiji, launched this week with the University of the South Pacific, projects growth of 2.1 per cent in 2026, recovering to 3.0 per cent by 2028, and warns that Fiji's room to respond to future shocks is narrowing. Tonga's inflation has reached 12.1 per cent.

Some money is moving. The Green Climate Fund has approved a US$250 million grant for climate resilience across 14 Pacific countries. Yet a discussion paper prepared ahead of the summit argues that the constraint is no longer access alone, but mobilisation, institutional capability, absorption and delivery. That reading matters. Grants that cannot be absorbed are not relief, and loans that can be absorbed are not neutral.